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Author
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Topic: The Incredibles Box Office Predictions
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Sketchboy
IE # 126
Member # 2537
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posted
Okay, only 8 days til "The Incredibles" opens and I can't wait!! Thought I'd open up the topic and predict what its opening weekend box office might be. Judging from all the buzz, both from my brethren inside and outside the industry, looks like the Incredibles should make a killing. My guess: $70 million.
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Charles
Administrator
Member # 7
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posted
Hold on, Sketchboy, hold on. Let's get a box office projection poll started.
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Sketchboy
IE # 126
Member # 2537
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posted
Sorry Charles. ![[funny]](graemlins/funny.gif) Got trigger happy there.
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Doodles
Member
Member # 565
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posted
I'll go WAY out on a limb with this one. I'm predicting triple digits. $100 mil by Sunday night of opening weekend. ![[bow]](graemlins/bow.gif)
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Russian Judge
IE # 174
Member # 3004
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posted
30 seconds after voting, I thought I aimed low...the $60-65 million range. It occurred to me then that, after all the horrible election crap we've been through, the public might flock to something escapist and fun. They probably won't use my remedy for the post-election depression...sipping NyQuil for blissful unconsciousness.
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See the new, updated TOON Magazine Online
at http://www.toonmag.com
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Dan P.
IE # 248
Member # 893
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posted
Doodles, I don't think you're that way out on a limb when predicting $100 million, especially when you consider that Shrek 2 made $108 million on it's own opening weekend.
Of course that was an established franchise, but it's not crazy to expect something close to that range for Brad's film. I'm personally thinking something in the $80-90 million area, which would still be sky-high for an original property.
Go Brad! Go Pixar!
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old_blue
Member
Member # 3117
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posted
60-70 opening weekend and under 200 for the month...With Polar Express and Spongbob it wont have the legs that Nemo did and wont make as much as Nemo either.
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Marcus Moore
IE # 108
Member # 197
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posted
There is extra competition for the younger set, but if the movie plays broadly, it might not take as much of a hit as if it had been FINDING NEMO, which definitely skews younger.
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Greg B
IE # 118
Member # 886
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posted
Are you guys on crack or something???
$100 million 3 day gross???
No freakin' way. School's still in. Pressure to do good grades before Christmas report cards. Post election blues. Fear of terrorism. Fear of Bush. It's gonna be cold out.
If it opened on a Wednesday I'ld say it'd make $100 mill easy. If it opens on a Friday, good weather allowing, I'll say it will bring in a good $40 mill. It won't stop either. Since it's PIXAR you KNOW you have to go see the movie 10 times just to see all the neat stuff again. So of course it'll hit $200 mill within a month and go on to an easy $300 mill by Christmas.
Weather, terrorists, evil teachers withstanding.
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Dan P.
IE # 248
Member # 893
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posted
I don't know what you're on Greg but if you think the most it can bring in in it's first weekend is a mere $40 million you might find yourself being even more off the mark than we are. For further proof, consider Shark Tale, which opened at $47.6 million with considerably lower buzz. I don't see how The Incredibles could make any less than that.
But hey, maybe I am on crack and it will barely surpass "Alfie" and "Alexander". But I'd rather think positive. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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Marcus Moore
IE # 108
Member # 197
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posted
Last weeks' #1 film THE GRUDGE OPENED at $39.1 million.
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oogieboogie
IE # 265
Member # 2706
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posted
Well, I'm going, and I haven't been out to a movie in months. Taking the family, too.
oogie
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Marcus Moore
IE # 108
Member # 197
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posted
I think I'll be taking a long lunch that day. And I'm thinking popcorn will be on the menu...
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Doodles
Member
Member # 565
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posted
quote:
No freakin' way. School's still in. Pressure to do good grades before Christmas report cards. Post election blues. Fear of terrorism. Fear of Bush. It's gonna be cold out.
I need an escape from exams. I want to think about something else besides an election. If we can't watch animated films, the terrorists have already won. The theatre is warmer than the house.
Face it, if "Shark Tale" can pull in over $40 mil with most of those same problems facing the country, and poor reviews, none of that is going to be any challenge to this movie. ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
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Greg B
IE # 118
Member # 886
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posted
Shark Tale got $40 Mill cause it's worth that and more. Had it opened when the kids were out of school it woulda gotten $70 mill without a Wednesday opening.
It ain't a matter if the film is good or not, it's the fact that KIDS WILL STILL BE IN SCHOOL so they won't be hitting the matinees on Friday, nor piling in multiple times during the week!
Summer and Fall are two different balls of wax. Don't be suprised that during Thanksgiving break if Incredibles does as good then as it will do on opening weekend.
Like I said, a PIXAR movie gets multiple viewerships because they know how to entertain.
Did you see the worldwide gross for Shrek 2? It's like almost $900 million! That's astounding! Shark Tale is over $200 mill worldwide too.
I would say the global gross for Incredibles will easily be close to if not past $100 mill the first weekend and that's being very conservative.
The movie will have legs all throughout the big 3 holiday seasons. It'll make a minimum of $300 mill during that period domestically.
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Dan P.
IE # 248
Member # 893
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posted
So what you're basically saying is that Shark Tale seems like a better film than The Incredibles? I don't get it.
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Marcus Moore
IE # 108
Member # 197
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posted
I don't think that's what he's saying... But I think you've made a mistake Greg, SHARKTALE opened on October 1st! Kids were already back in school. So THE INCREDIBLES is opening under the exact same conditions.
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Marcus Moore
IE # 108
Member # 197
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posted
Wait, I just reread your post. That's not what you're saying...
...what are you saying? That it will open to the same amount.
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monkeydad
Member
Member # 1566
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posted
One meelllion dollars!
(da da dum, da da dum....)
I mean... One hundred beelllllion dollars!
(da da dum, da da dum....)
mwahahaha, mwahahaha, mwahahahahahaha!
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Animagus
IE # 49
Member # 279
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posted
quote:
Don't be suprised that during Thanksgiving break if Incredibles does as good then as it will do on opening weekend.
So, you're saying you don't have much faith in "Polar Express" and "Spongebob", which it will then be up against? Or, how well do you think that those will do?
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Aaron Simpson
IE # 92
Member # 1730
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posted
the harry potter movies made around 90 in those two november openings, and before that, the two biggest November openings were Monsters Inc at 62, and toy story at 57. I'm going with 78 million. there is simply no competition out there next week.
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coldhardflash.com
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animator-boy
IE # 54
Member # 442
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posted
Incredibles is also said to have the SW: Revenge of the Sith teaser in front of it....I'm sure that will help boost its opening weekend numbers..
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www.raymation.net
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Hmmmm
Member
Member # 1719
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posted
Well Greg B. at least we'll be able to find out how good you are at judging the box office, and if your theory about kids being in school makes a difference or not. I personally think that the kids this will attract are teens, and if they're anything like mine, they'll be in the theaters on opening weekend.
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Corn Fed
Member
Member # 1085
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posted
40 mil is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY too low. "Incredibles" will do "Star Wars"-like numbers. Biggest money-maker of the year, without a doubt. I predict at least 80 million opening weekend. Bring it on, Pixar!
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Dickie Crickitts
Member
Member # 690
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posted
I think it will do better than Shark Tale. Lets hope so anyway.
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Ravenshoe
IE # 186
Member # 783
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posted
If there was ever a "must see" movie, it's The Incredibles. It looks brilliant and I'm guessing its going to set an all-time opening-weekend box office record (for animation).
At today's current rate of exchange... carry the one...
What IS the current record? Whatever it is, The Incredibles will smash it.
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Doodles
Member
Member # 565
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posted
I just saw the movie last night.
I stand by my $100 mil projection, and suspect it may do more. ![[thumbsup]](graemlins/thumbsup.gif)
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Animagus
IE # 49
Member # 279
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posted
quote:
One meelllion dollars!
(da da dum, da da dum....)
I mean... One hundred beelllllion dollars!
(da da dum, da da dum....)
mwahahaha, mwahahaha, mwahahahahahaha
Well, y' know...
*** SPOILER ALERT ***
"Syndrome" does reside "inside a volcano...surrounded by liquid hot MAGMAAAAAHHH. "
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Im2dGuy
IE # 25
Member # 1160
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posted
I was just walking around West Hollywood
in an Incedible Halloween Costume,
and was truly amazed at the number of people,
kids and adults, that recognized me,
and shouted,
"hey it's Mr Incredible!"
Disney marketing knows what they are doing.
There's a lot of Brand recognition already.
I say 90-100 million, opening.
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www.animationbrad.com
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Doodles
Member
Member # 565
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posted
So...
You're balding and have an enormous beergut? ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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Tinalera Shadowhawk
Member
Member # 669
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posted
So figuring what, 60-70 million opening weekend, not too shabby! Gotta go see this movie when the crowds die down.
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Dan P.
IE # 248
Member # 893
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posted
The way I figure, The Incredibles will make it's money over a long period of time as word of mouth travels around just as Nemo did in it's theatrical run. So although one could say this is a relatively low amount for opening day, this is an original property and it will just get better as it goes along.
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Michael W Howe
IE # 251
Member # 1827
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posted
I was estimating an $80 million opening weekend, but I still figure Incredibles will be like all good films, and outlast tacky Hollywood fare. Incredibles has the potential to run in a theatre for at least 2 months. Hollywood films die in about 1, or in the case of Surviving Christmas, 2 weeks. Hey, I'm a projectionist as well as an animator, but I'd rather animate.
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"He's got three Piston Cups!"
"He did WHAT in his cup!??"
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old_blue
Member
Member # 3117
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posted
Please it beat Nemo in an estimate by less then 1 million dollars and probably wont make as much long term as Nemo or SHrek2 with all the holiday competition out there. When Nemo came out in the summer it had no competition. It wont be the same story this time. Specially since Polar Express opens on WED of next week.
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Hmmmm
Member
Member # 1719
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posted
BTW wasn't it supposed to be up against Polar Express??? I didn't see that film listed on the Friday Box Office Mojo prediction. Can someone fill me in?
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