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Author Topic: Let's track an animation mutual fund
Charles
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We're talking about the stock market in the Side Topics Forum and I got an idea I'd like to try here.

How about we create a hypothetical animation based mutual fund for the sake of tracking it to see how it performs. This'll be a good way to follow the broader industry. We pick 10 stocks let's say, exclusively animation oriented stocks, to see how the industry in general fares. We'll check into it every so often to determine its value. Every month for instance, at the beginning of the month, all the way to Animation Day April 1 of next year.

We'll need to identify 10 stocks. I'll get this going with a few suggestions, the most obvious choices being Disney and DreamWorks. We could toss Time Warner into the mix, also Viacom.

What else? How about Apple Computers?

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Greg B
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Cool Charles, but instead of watching the big boys, how about the newbies?

That gives more adventure. The main stocks will always go a wee bit up and a wee bit down. Sort of like watching socks dry.

The newbies, like animation software, are more challenging and entertaining [Smile]

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SNAKEBITE
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half big boys, half indies/newbies.

seems like the obvious next suggestion.

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Thunder Man
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I wish Pixar had gone independent, instead
of throwing in with Disney. There's probably
excellent business reasons for doing so, but still..That would have been something to see, man!

Is it inevitable that, for a business to grow, and for its stock to rise in the market, it MUST get larger as well?

Does a large company inevitably mean inflexible, limited thinking?

I'm just asking.

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rhinthell
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I don't think Apple has inflexible limited thinking and they're pretty darn big.
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Jennifer Hachigian Jerrard
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If it's not too late, here are some additional stocks to consider for the list...

BANDAI VISUAL CO., LTD. (Public, TYO:4325)
TOEI ANIMATION CO., LTD. (Public, JSD:4816)
Production I.G, Inc. (Public, JSD:3791)
TMS Entertainment, Ltd (Public, NAG:3585)

A search for "animation" on Google Finance turned up 248 matches. Here's some of the "public" matches:

Sony Corporation (ADR) (Public, NYSE:SNE)
News Corporation (Public, NYSE:NWS.A)
DIC Entertainment Holdings, Inc (Public, SEA:DEKE)
Imagi International Holdings Ltd (Public, HKG:0585)
Mondo TV S.p.A. (Public, BIT:MTV)
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (Public, BOM:505537)
Marvelous Entertainment Inc. (Public, TYO:7844)
BROCCOLI Co., Ltd. (Public, JSD:2706)
Marvel Entertainment, Inc. (Public, NYSE:MVL)
Xilam Animation (Public, EPA:XIL)

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Hockey Frog
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Great topic! To narrow the choices a bit, I would suggest choosing companies that are actual animation producers, not just property licensors. Also, if this virtual mutual fund is to give us any idea of the changing state of the industry, I would avoid companies whose fortunes are not directed mainly by their animation production (like Sony).

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tstevens
IE # 234
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In general, you always want atleast three things when you invest in a stock...

- you need to understand what that company does
- the company needs to have a track record
- you should be a consumer of that product. (By consuming a product you understand what it does and you can judge wether or not it is good. You also patronize said company which directly influences thier profits.)

I would eliminate companies that are start-ups based on a limtied track record. That makes the major players, to some degree, the safest bet. If you go with companies like Disney, Sony, Pixar, or Viacom, you have pretty good odds of doing well. International markets are a whole other issue. I think Jennifer's suggestions are good, but they are bit harder for most Americans to grasp since they are not on the NASDAQ or NYSE.

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Charles
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Links to the stocks of publicly traded companies that are involved in animation as Jennifer has done are welcome.

Since part of the purpose of this hypothetical fund is to gauge how the industry in general is faring, I would agree that sticking to the major players is the way to for the time being. Like an index, the Dow, S&P 500, etc.

I suggest we start with Disney, DeamWorks, Viacom, Sony, Time Warner, Marvel... that makes 5. We have openings for 5 more.

Starz Media is the company that owns the company that produces the Simpsons, I'm not sure. It was originally Film Roman, it turned into IDT I think. If someone can help out here that would be great.

When we have 10 companies, we'll pool the value of each share of their stock, then divide it by 10. That'll give us a per share value for the mutual fund. We can check in on a regular basis to see what the per share value is and compare it where we started. We can follow it to April 1 to see how much it's gained or lost in 10 month's time. We'll do it all by 10s.

Let's shoot for a target of having the 10 companies in the fund lined up and ready to go by June 1.

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tstevens
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Here are a few...

Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)
Electronic Arts Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ERTS)
Adobe Systems Incorporated (Public, NASDAQ:ADBE)

Autodesk is the only major animation software provider I could think of. Adobe isn't actually animation related but you would be hard pressed to find a studio not using atleast three or four of thier programs. Electronic Arts is a pretty good one: they employ a considerable amount of animators and are just about the biggest game producer.

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Doodles
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If you're going to include games animation, you'll want:

Nintendo Co., Ltd (ADR) (Public, OTC:NTDOY)
Activision, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ATVI)
Konami Corporation (ADR)(Public, NYSE:KNM)
THQ Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:THQI)
Vivendi (Public, EPA:VIV)
NAMCO BANDAI Holdings Inc. (Public, TYO:7832) [also for TV animation]

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Charles
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There's a lot to choose from. We should also consider Apple and IBM.

Maybe a good criteria for deciding which 10 companies will be included in this fund would be to see which ones trade on the NYSE or NASDAQ. We could also structure another fund with established animation companies that trade on other exchanges. For now, perhaps sticking with the two major exchanges would be the best way to establish a basic qualification for this particular fund. That shouldn't discourage ANers from listing other animation oriented companies. The more we have to choose from the better.

We'll have to bump a couple for the final cut, but from what we've got so far, let's consider adding Autodesk, Adobe, Microsoft, Apple, Electronic Arts and possibley IBM as contenders for inclusion in the fund. Is Lucas a publicly traded company?

Another way of structuring this as an index to determine value and not give too much weight to one company over another as far as the per share price is concerned. We purchase $1000 worth of each stock for a combined total of $10,000. Then follow the value of the fund based upon a $10,000 investment. That way we have 2 gauges. One to establish a per share value and another to establish the value of a fund which is equally vested to each company.

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Jennifer Hachigian Jerrard
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quote:
Is Lucas a publicly traded company?
I did a search for "Lucasfilm" and "Industrial Light and Magic" on Google Finance, but nothing public turned up.

If animation software companies count, consider Avid (Public, NASDAQ:AVID), which owns Softimage XSI and Softimage Toonz. Animal Logic credited XSI as their main 3D package for Happy Feet, and Studio Ghibli used Toonz for some of their recent hand-drawn animated feature films.

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dermot
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I think it'd be difficult to pick things that reflect the health of the industry....but I wonder if it was possible to pick companies that were new-ish....say...no more than 10 years on the stock market....and yes , not too far removed. ( Sony or Apple wouldn't be much of an indicator of animation industry health )

A suggestion might be to include at least one 2-D and one 3-D software company....maybe they could have their own sidebet race to compare hehehehe

D

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Charles
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It's time to start tracking the mutual fund. Hoping that our members will trust my judgement on this, I'm going to go through the individual stocks and choose 10 of them based on the comprehensive suggestions that have been offered. I plan to have it ready to go by Monday. Thanks to everyone who chimed in on this, especially the ANers who researched individual stocks and posted them up. Thanks very much.

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Charles
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The market went through a selloff a few days ago so I waited to see how deep it would go, but it bounced back almost immediately. This is a strong market that'll last as long as real estate is sluggish. I thought I'd buy a little low with our hypothetical mutual fund but waiting isn't a good idea right now, so let's jump in.

I went through the list of companies suugested above and decided to stick strictly with the ones that traded on either the NASDQ or the NYSE.

Here's the list of 10 stocks we'll be tracking over the next few months into the spring of next year.

Disney
DreamWorks
Sony
Marvel
Electronic Arts
Activision
Viacom
Time Warner
Autodesk
Adobe

Gonna check on what they closed at today and return with their current values.

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Charles
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Okay here's the line up as of the closing bell on Friday, June 15, 2007.

Disney (DIS) 34.40
DreamWorks (DWA) 28.93
Sony (SNE) 54.53
Marvel (MVL) 26.78
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 50.49
Activision (ATVI) 19.13
Viacom (VIA) 43.55
Time Warner (TWX) 20.90
Autodesk (ADSK) 45.00
Adobe (ADBE) 42.75

Pretty much all of these stocks are currently being rated as buy recommendations so we'll see how the numbers look as time goes on. This will give us a good idea as to how the industry in general is doping from a variety of different sectors.

The target is April 1, 2008. Animation Day next year.

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Charles
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Here's the first and latest update concerning the value of this mutual fund.

Each stock individually as of July 6 '07:

Disney (DIS) 34.49
DreamWorks (DWA) 28.55
Sony (SNE) 53.14
Marvel (MVL) 26.81
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 50.90
Activision (ATVI) 18.56
Viacom (VIA) 43.00
Time Warner (TWX) 21.02
Autodesk (ADSK) 45.20
Adobe (ADBE) 41.02

Compared to when this was launched, 5 stocks have gained in value and 5 have declined. Biggest gainer in this period looks to be Activision. Biggest loser Adobe.

The per share value of the mutual fund as of its launching on June 15 was $36.65. Currently it's at $36.27, down 38 cents.

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Charles
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Tracking the hypothetical mutual fund for this day in early August. Last month's price is to the left, current to the right for comparison.

Disney (DIS) 34.49 / 34.29
DreamWorks (DWA) 28.55 / 30.96
Sony (SNE) 53.14 / 49.46
Marvel (MVL) 26.81 / 22.56
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 50.90 / 54.20
Activision (ATVI) 18.56 / 18.85
Viacom (VIA) 43.00 / 38.89
Time Warner (TWX) 21.02 / 18.98
Autodesk (ADSK) 45.20 / 44.03
Adobe (ADBE) 41.02 / 40.23

Compared to last month at this time, 4 stocks have gained in value and 6 have declined. Biggest gainer in this period is Electronic Arts. Biggest loser Marvel.

The per share value of the mutual fund as of its launching on June 15 was $36.65. Last month it was $36.27. Currently it's at $35.25, down 98 cents from July and $1.40 from June.

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Tobias A. Wolf
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EA looks like it's coming out on top for now. Honestly looking at the list and thinking over the last few months, there are only a couple of companies that have offered or are going to offer products compelling enough for me to buy them. Time Warner is one with the release of 300, which I bought on Blu-Ray so Sony gets a piece of that as well. And I will definitely be buying EA's Skate when it comes out next month. Although not for the PS3, but for the 360 due to the superior amount of video RAM which, for the most part, has made the fidelity of cross-platform releases look much better on the Microsoft system to date.

I was kind of bummed to hear about Autodesk acquiring Mudbox the other day. As I've invested my SDS brush based modeling time over the years using Z-Brush. Obviously, the potential pipeline workflow advantages between Maya and Mudbox over ZBrush in the future will hurt the user base. Pixologic got the bolts turned on them. I think Autodesk probably got a good deal out of it, but I think artists as users, many of which work in a Z-Brush to Maya or 3DS workflow, got the business end out of it.

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Charles
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Tracking the hypothetical mutual fund for this day in early August. Last month's price is to the left, current to the right for comparison.

Disney (DIS) 34.29 / 34.58
DreamWorks (DWA) 30.96 / 32.26
Sony (SNE) 49.46 / 47.31
Marvel (MVL) 22.56 / 22.74
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 54.20 / 55.72
Activision (ATVI) 18.85 / 20.80
Viacom (VIA) 38.89 / 38.51
Time Warner (TWX) 18.98 / 18.66
Autodesk (ADSK) 44.03 / 48.85
Adobe (ADBE) 40.23 / 43.71

Compared to last month at this time, 6 stocks have gained in value and 4 have declined. Biggest gainer in this period is Autodesk. Biggest loser Sony.

The per share value of the mutual fund as of its launching on June 15 was $36.65. Last month it was $35.25. Currently it's at $36.31, up $1.06 cents from August and down 34 cents from the inception of the fund in June.

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Charles
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The stock market is at an all time high level again with the Dow Jones average above 14,000.

Tracking the hypothetical mutual fund for this day in early October. Last month's price is to the left, current to the right for comparison.

Disney (DIS) 34.58 / 34.77
DreamWorks (DWA) 32.26 / 34.70
Sony (SNE) 47.31 / 51.14
Marvel (MVL) 22.74 / 27.07
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 55.72 / 58.35
Activision (ATVI) 20.80 / 22.26
Viacom (VIA) 38.51 / 38.61
Time Warner (TWX) 18.66 / 18.59
Autodesk (ADSK) 48.85 / 49.91
Adobe (ADBE) 43.71 / 44.23

Compared to last month, 9 stocks have gained in value and only one has slightly declined. Biggest gainer in this period is Marvel. This month's losing stock is Time Warner.

The per share value of the mutual fund as of its launching on June 15 was $36.65. Last month it was $36.31. Currently it's at $37.96, up $1.65 cents from September and up $1.31 from the inception of the fund in June.

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Charles
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The stock market has come down from its all time high level last month as the Dow Jones index is currently at 13,567 after taking a big hit today.

Tracking the hypothetical mutual fund for this November 1. Last month's price is to the left, current to the right for comparison.

Disney (DIS) 34.77 / 33.80
DreamWorks (DWA) 34.70 / 32.88
Sony (SNE) 51.14 / 49.10
Marvel (MVL) 27.07 / 23.17
Electronic Arts (ERTS) 58.35 / 58.74
Activision (ATVI) 22.26 / 23.01
Viacom (VIA) 38.61 / 40.41
Time Warner (TWX) 18.59 / 18.00
Autodesk (ADSK) 49.91 / 47.80
Adobe (ADBE) 44.23 / 46.92

Compared to last month, 4 stocks have gained in value and 6 have declined, some more than others. Biggest gainer in this period is Adobe. This month's worst performer is Marvel.

The per share value of the mutual fund as of its launching on June 15 was $36.65. Last month it was $37.96. Currently it's at $37.38, down $.58 cents from October yet up $.73 from the inception of the fund in June.

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